When the playoffs started, most thought (including me) that it was a foregone conclusion that we'd see the Cavs vs. the Lakers in the Finals. It was believed that the two best players on the planet, and their respective talented teams, would coast to the Finals, setting up the best mano-a-mano Finals battle since Magic vs. Bird.
After a month of playoff basketball, LeBron's lived up to his end of the bargain. The Cavs look even more legit than we thought, and somehow King James actually looks better than he did during his MVP regular season.
And the Lakers? Not so much. The best adjective I've heard that describes L.A. is "bipolar." We really never know which team we're going to get with them.
So are we still headed for a LeBron and Kobe finale for the ages? Let's break down the conference championships and find out....
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Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland LeBro... er Cavaliers
Backcourt
The Magic did their best to shore up their point guard spot when Jameer Nelson went down, trading for Rafer Alston. "Skip to My Lou" is no Nelson, and was pretty terrible for the first six games of the Magic's last series against the Celtics. He showed up in a big way in Game 7, getting in the paint at will and making smart decisions, and he was one of the main reasons why the Celtics coasted. J.J. Redick has been starting in the other gaurd spot. Redick, everyone's favorite Dukie and D.U.I. dodger, has actually been playing half-decent defense in the playoffs, although his shooting has been suspect.
The Cavs backcourt is led by two great shooters in Mo Williams and Delonte West. Mo isn't your prototypical point guard, but he's been lights out all season. Adding Williams to the Cavs roster at the beginning of the season has turned them from a good team to an elite one. West can score and is a tough guy that can do a lot of good things on the floor. Plus, both guys have the ability to get into the paint and are underrated defenders. They're a bit undersized, but also completely legit.
ADV - Cavs
Frontcourt
The Magic feature the man-child that is Dwight Howard, who is capable of getting a 20-20 on just about every night. Hedo Turkoglu has proven that he can be a clutch scorer in the fourth quarter. Rashard Lewis is a matchup nightmare. At 6-10, Lewis can post up and bury three-poiners. All these guys have oodles of talent, but I still feel like Howard disappears for too long of stretches. At his size, that should never happen. And Lewis and Turkoglu are great, but they both tend to be streaky. If the threes aren't falling, they can definitely be taken out of the game.
Zydrunas Ilgauskus is frightenly effective for the Cavs. He can hit any open shot from 20-feet in and is a perfect pick-and-pop center. Anderson Varejao is the type of basketball player every coach wants. He gives heart, hustle, rebounds and energy. He tends to flop like a European soccer player, but whatever, at least he's effective. Oh, and the Cavs have that guy named LeBron. You can read gushing accounts of Bron-Bron just about everywhere on the internet, so let me just summarize by saying this. I thought King James was unstoppable last year. He somehow improved his game this season by becoming a lockdown defender, a better teammate and raising his overall basketball I.Q. I didn't think that LeBron could get much better than he was during the regular season.
Then the playoffs came around and he's been even better. I don't even think he's played his best game yet, because he hasn't had to. When he dropped his 47-12-8 masterpiece on the Hawks in Game 3, I realized that LeBron is playing in another stratosphere right now. So yeah, the Magic's frontcourt is nice, but they don't have the King.
ADV - Cavs
Bench
The Magic's bench has been a nice boost during the playoffs. Mickael Pietrus shoots well, plays solid D, and reminds me why I don't like the French everytime he does that cocky strut after he makes a shot. Courtney Lee has been a knockdown jump shooter, and is one of the few players on the Magic that can get to the rim consistenstly. Backup point gaurd Anthony Johnson actually outplayed Alston during most of the Celtics series and backup center Marcin Gorat has a little bit of game too. That's a solid rotation.
The Cavs bench is pretty good in its own right. Joe Smith is a veteran with playoff experience. Boobie Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak can both knock down open threes (and when you're playing with LeBron, that's all you really have to do), and Ben Wallace, once upon a time, was an important piece to a Championship team.
Cleveland's bench is servicable, but the Magic actually have guys coming off their bench that could start for a lot of teams in the league. And when you're a team like the Magic, that feature alot of streaky shooters, it's important to have guys to rotate in when other guy's shots aren't falling.
ADV - Magic
Perhaps the Cavs' bench would be a little more feared, if oneof their main contributors wasn't nicknamed "Boobie"
Coaching
I'll give Stan Van some credit, he made some nice adjustments in Game 6 and 7 to beat the Celtics. And anytime you can win a Game 7 on the road, a thing that only one in every five road teams are able to do, credit is due.
But it's tough to ignore that three different players this year have called out Van Gundy's coaching methods. I've also heard from some pretty credible sources in the know (yeah, that's right, I've got some "unnamed sources" of my own. How you like me now Chris Mortensen?) that say that no one on the roster takes Van Gundy seriously.
The Cav's Mike Brown has been criticized in the past for his style, but you have to give credit to him for instilling a defense-first system a few years ago, that is paying dividends now. It certainly doesn't hurt when your best players is LeBron - a team-first guy that is the best player in basketball right now. But Brown hasn't done anything wrong or stupid this season. Sometimes in the NBA, it's that simple. Just don't mess anything up. Brown's been able to quietly steer the Cavs into a position to succeed this year.
ADV - Cavs
Case for the Magic
Orlando's got arguably the best center in the league, surrounded by a bunch of dangerous 3-point shooters. There's no denying the Magic have an uphill battle, but if they can get white-hot in a couple of early games, they can make this a series. They beat Cleveland two out of three games during the regular season, including a dismantling on April 3rd, so I'm sure the Magic aren't scurred. Also, keep in mind that the Magic have been pushed in their first two series while the Cavs have been virtually untested. There's no telling how a team will change when it faces some adverse situations, especially when it hasn't had any trouble. Plus, Orlando seems to be (finally) gelling at the right time.
And hell, anything's possible right?
Case for the Cavs
The Cavs have been playing like a team on a mission for most of the second half of the regular season and for the entire playoffs so far. They play exceptionally well as a team, and genuinly like each other. They have the unquestioned best player in the NBA right now (sorry Kobe fans, but it's really not much of a debate anymore) who has been deep in the playoffs before. LeBron knows that he has to bring it every night to win a title.
Way back in November, I predicted that Lebron would go to New York when his current contract ends in 2010. Although I don't believe it's a certainty anymore, I still do believe it's going to happen. But Lebron doesn't want to leave his hometown without getting Cleveland a title. He knows this year is his best chance, and he's playing like it. For that reason alone, I don't know if any team or player will be able to stop him this season.
Prediction
Cavs in 5
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Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Backcourt
Chauncey Billups has been the single biggest acquisition of any team this year. He's helped turn a team that never played enough defense, rarely played together and always ended their season with a first round exit, to a team on the brink of the NBA Finals. His effect on this team can't be understated. He was a legitimate MVP candidate based on what he's done for this team. He hasn't slowed down in the playoffs, as he's been - in my opinion - the best point guard on any of the playoff teams thus far. The Nuggets shooting guard, Dahntay Jones, is a good defender and makes those ever-so-important hustle plays. With a team with as much offense as Denver, that's all he really has to give.
Kobe is one of the best players in the NBA to watch. His basketball IQ is so ridiculously high. He was born to score a basketball, and the effortlessness in which he does it is a real sight to see. That being said, for his team to win, he needs to keep his shot attempts down (somewhere around the 19-22 attempts range) and get the rest of his team involved for the Lakers to be as great as they can be. His defense is always stellar and he can simply rip the heart out of an opponent when he wants to.
The other guard spot for the Lakers hasn't been so hot. Derek Fisher has gotten old fast, as he was getting straight owned by Aaron Brooks in the Rockets series. It didn't help that on the offensive end he wasn't doing much better, as he shot just 31% from the field in the Houston series. Backup point guard Jordan Farmer might actually be a better option for the Lakers, but Phil Jackson doesn't want to stray away from a point guard he trusts. Kobe gives the Lakers the edge, but it's alot closer than you think.
ADV - Lakers
Frontcourt
Now here's an interesting matchup, as both teams have great players in the post. The Nuggets have a nice mix of great offense, defense and toughness. Nene, who had been playing better all season, has raised his game even more in the playoffs. His size makes it very dificult to defend him, and also to go against him when he's on defense. Kenyon Martin is a damn pitbull, who has an innate ability to scare the bejesus out of the guy he's covering. He had Nowitzki shook at times during the Dallas series, and he'll definitely be trying to do the same to the Lakers fancy bigs. Then there's Melo, one of the most pure scorers in this league.
Alot's been written and said (and deserverdly so) about Chauncey's effect on this team. What hasn't been covered as much is how 'Melo has sacrificed his scoring, matured, became a better teammate and took on a leadership role to help the Nuggets get to this point. There's no question that Billups has been the catalyst for the Denver's incredible play this year. But Anthony's still the best player on this team. Bron-Bron and DWade have both proven to be bonafide superstars. Anthony was supposed to be at their level, but hasn't been able to accomplish what they have yet. This is his best chance.
The Lakers featured a more talented frontcourt, when they started Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, but coach Phil Jackson has been hell-bent on bringing Andrew Bynum back. Gasol demands a double-team every time down the floor, and he has such an array of offensive moves, that it's dizzying for most defenders. Bynum has never really looked the same since the regular season (although he did have a nice Game 7 last round) and I think he actually hinders the Lakers as they focus on trying to get him involved when they don't have to. Still, you can't teach size, and Bynum has a lot of it. If he can get back to his play earlier in the season, he can be a terror down low. Trevor Ariza has been a nice piece for L.A. this year, as he can cover the other team's best perimeter player, allowing Kobe to not have to do it and saving his energy for the offensive end. Ariza can occasionally knock down the open three as well. If Odom was still starting, I think this would be a lot closer, but I like Denver's bigs against L.A.'s with Lamar on the bench.
ADV - Nuggets
Something tells me this isn't a man that the Lakers' bigsare too excited about seeing next round
Bench
The Nuggets have probably the best bench in the NBA. Anthony Carter is a very solid backup point guard, capable of scoring and running an offense. J.R. Smith is instant offense and is one of a handful of players that can come off the bench and score 30 points. Then there's "The Birdman" Chris Anderson. He's a crowd-pleaser that does all of the little things the Nuggets need. He doesn't score, but he doesn't have to. He's an awesome rebounder and shot-blocker and for 20 minutes a game, he can bring controlled chaos.
Now that Lamar Odom isn't starting, I guess that strengthens the Lakers bench. But I think Odom's actually more effective as a starter. Same with Jordan Farmer (that is, when he gets burn. It seems like Phil Jackson doesn't have complete confidence in the young point guard's ability). Shannon Brown, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic are all capable of having nice games... or really shitty ones. You never really know. And part of the reason the Lakers haven't been as good as they probably should be, is due to inconsistency from their bench.
ADV - Nuggets
Coaching
George Karl's playoff resume is a little suspect. He is the 12th winningest coach of all-time, but he also has the unfortunate distinction of being the only coach to have a 1-seeded team lose to an 8-seeded team, when his Sonics team managed this feat in 1994. He also coached the U.S National Team that got 6th in the 2002 Fiba World Championship. Oh, and he's also never won a Championship in his 21-year coaching career.
Still, he's helped morph a talented team into a Championship-caliber team, and he deserves credit for that. I'm not totally sold on him, but thus far he's proved me wrong.
The Lakers feature one of the best coaches of all time. The Zen-Master has nine titles. He's also coached some of the best players ever, in Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe. It's hard to question Phil Jackson, but I have been puzzled by some of his moves. Why put Bynum back in the starting rotation when Odom has looked much more effective as a starter? Why not start Farmer, when Fisher is clearly a shell of his former self? They seem like uncharacteristic mistakes by Jackson.
You don't pick against nine titles though. You just don't.
ADV - Lakers
Case for the Nuggets
Other than the Cavs (hell, maybe even including the Cavs), no team is playing better than Denver right now. They have it all: high-octane offense, physical defense, veteran leadership, great bench and experienced (albeit probably overrated) coaching. What also works in their favor is the way the Celtics handled the Lakers in the Finals last year. They did it by outmuscling the Lakers soft bigs, something the Nuggets should have no trouble doing. K-Mart and Nene can take Odom and Gasol out of it and Bynum just hasn't been consistent enough to be much of a threat. I don't know who they have to cover Kobe, but if they can take care of everyone else, it may force Kobe to go for 40 every night. That actually favors the Nuggets.
Chauncey should do well against either of the Lakers point guards, and he will be the calming, reassuring force that Denver needs in a series of this magnitude. And people seem to just ignore the fact that Kobe is going back to Colorado... just sayin.'
Denver can win this series. And the worst part for the Lakers is, they know they can.
Case for the Lakers
The Lakers have the most talent. When Kobe, Odom and Gasol are clicking, they may be the best big-3 in the NBA. They can score in bunches and their length disrupts most teams. They have a proven coach and a deep bench. Even though the bench has been a problem, they really only need to get production from 2 1/2 guys for the team to play well.
Then there's Kobe. Black Mamba knows that he'll soon be hitting the downside of his career. Remember that he's been in the NBA since he was 17. He's 30 now. He's running out of chances to win an NBA title.
Kobe is well aware of his place in history. If he doesn't win a title without Shaq, he'll always be remembered as the Robin to Shaq's Batman. Scottie Pippen was a helluva player, and a top-50 NBA player of all-time in his own right. But he's only remembered for being MJ's No. 2.
Kobe needs to win the title this year. I don't know if he can beat LeBron to get it, but I just can't bet against him at least getting to the Finals.
Prediction
Lakers in 7
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So after a month of playoffs, I still think it'll be Cavs/Lakers in the Finals. It won't be the cakewalk I thought coming in, but we should still get the LeBron and Kobe battle that NBA fans are hoping for.
And since I can't come up with a clever ending, watch this highlight video of the game's two best players.
Photos Courtesy of Google Images and ESPN.com
And since I can't come up with a clever ending, watch this highlight video of the game's two best players.
Photos Courtesy of Google Images and ESPN.com
