Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Conference Finals

When the playoffs started, most thought (including me) that it was a foregone conclusion that we'd see the Cavs vs. the Lakers in the Finals. It was believed that the two best players on the planet, and their respective talented teams, would coast to the Finals, setting up the best mano-a-mano Finals battle since Magic vs. Bird.

After a month of playoff basketball, LeBron's lived up to his end of the bargain. The Cavs look even more legit than we thought, and somehow King James actually looks better than he did during his MVP regular season.

And the Lakers? Not so much. The best adjective I've heard that describes L.A. is "bipolar." We really never know which team we're going to get with them.

So are we still headed for a LeBron and Kobe finale for the ages? Let's break down the conference championships and find out....

***

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland LeBro... er Cavaliers

Backcourt
The Magic did their best to shore up their point guard spot when Jameer Nelson went down, trading for Rafer Alston. "Skip to My Lou" is no Nelson, and was pretty terrible for the first six games of the Magic's last series against the Celtics. He showed up in a big way in Game 7, getting in the paint at will and making smart decisions, and he was one of the main reasons why the Celtics coasted. J.J. Redick has been starting in the other gaurd spot. Redick, everyone's favorite Dukie and D.U.I. dodger, has actually been playing half-decent defense in the playoffs, although his shooting has been suspect.

The Cavs backcourt is led by two great shooters in Mo Williams and Delonte West. Mo isn't your prototypical point guard, but he's been lights out all season. Adding Williams to the Cavs roster at the beginning of the season has turned them from a good team to an elite one. West can score and is a tough guy that can do a lot of good things on the floor. Plus, both guys have the ability to get into the paint and are underrated defenders. They're a bit undersized, but also completely legit.

ADV - Cavs

Frontcourt
The Magic feature the man-child that is Dwight Howard, who is capable of getting a 20-20 on just about every night. Hedo Turkoglu has proven that he can be a clutch scorer in the fourth quarter. Rashard Lewis is a matchup nightmare. At 6-10, Lewis can post up and bury three-poiners. All these guys have oodles of talent, but I still feel like Howard disappears for too long of stretches. At his size, that should never happen. And Lewis and Turkoglu are great, but they both tend to be streaky. If the threes aren't falling, they can definitely be taken out of the game.

Zydrunas Ilgauskus is frightenly effective for the Cavs. He can hit any open shot from 20-feet in and is a perfect pick-and-pop center. Anderson Varejao is the type of basketball player every coach wants. He gives heart, hustle, rebounds and energy. He tends to flop like a European soccer player, but whatever, at least he's effective. Oh, and the Cavs have that guy named LeBron. You can read gushing accounts of Bron-Bron just about everywhere on the internet, so let me just summarize by saying this. I thought King James was unstoppable last year. He somehow improved his game this season by becoming a lockdown defender, a better teammate and raising his overall basketball I.Q. I didn't think that LeBron could get much better than he was during the regular season.

Then the playoffs came around and he's been even better. I don't even think he's played his best game yet, because he hasn't had to. When he dropped his 47-12-8 masterpiece on the Hawks in Game 3, I realized that LeBron is playing in another stratosphere right now. So yeah, the Magic's frontcourt is nice, but they don't have the King.

ADV - Cavs

Bench
The Magic's bench has been a nice boost during the playoffs. Mickael Pietrus shoots well, plays solid D, and reminds me why I don't like the French everytime he does that cocky strut after he makes a shot. Courtney Lee has been a knockdown jump shooter, and is one of the few players on the Magic that can get to the rim consistenstly. Backup point gaurd Anthony Johnson actually outplayed Alston during most of the Celtics series and backup center Marcin Gorat has a little bit of game too. That's a solid rotation.

The Cavs bench is pretty good in its own right. Joe Smith is a veteran with playoff experience. Boobie Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak can both knock down open threes (and when you're playing with LeBron, that's all you really have to do), and Ben Wallace, once upon a time, was an important piece to a Championship team.

Cleveland's bench is servicable, but the Magic actually have guys coming off their bench that could start for a lot of teams in the league. And when you're a team like the Magic, that feature alot of streaky shooters, it's important to have guys to rotate in when other guy's shots aren't falling.

ADV - Magic

Perhaps the Cavs' bench would be a little more feared, if one
of their main contributors wasn't nicknamed "Boobie"

Coaching
I'll give Stan Van some credit, he made some nice adjustments in Game 6 and 7 to beat the Celtics. And anytime you can win a Game 7 on the road, a thing that only one in every five road teams are able to do, credit is due.

But it's tough to ignore that three different players this year have called out Van Gundy's coaching methods. I've also heard from some pretty credible sources in the know (yeah, that's right, I've got some "unnamed sources" of my own. How you like me now Chris Mortensen?) that say that no one on the roster takes Van Gundy seriously.

The Cav's Mike Brown has been criticized in the past for his style, but you have to give credit to him for instilling a defense-first system a few years ago, that is paying dividends now. It certainly doesn't hurt when your best players is LeBron - a team-first guy that is the best player in basketball right now. But Brown hasn't done anything wrong or stupid this season. Sometimes in the NBA, it's that simple. Just don't mess anything up. Brown's been able to quietly steer the Cavs into a position to succeed this year.

ADV - Cavs

Case for the Magic
Orlando's got arguably the best center in the league, surrounded by a bunch of dangerous 3-point shooters. There's no denying the Magic have an uphill battle, but if they can get white-hot in a couple of early games, they can make this a series. They beat Cleveland two out of three games during the regular season, including a dismantling on April 3rd, so I'm sure the Magic aren't scurred. Also, keep in mind that the Magic have been pushed in their first two series while the Cavs have been virtually untested. There's no telling how a team will change when it faces some adverse situations, especially when it hasn't had any trouble. Plus, Orlando seems to be (finally) gelling at the right time.

And hell, anything's possible right?

Case for the Cavs
The Cavs have been playing like a team on a mission for most of the second half of the regular season and for the entire playoffs so far. They play exceptionally well as a team, and genuinly like each other. They have the unquestioned best player in the NBA right now (sorry Kobe fans, but it's really not much of a debate anymore) who has been deep in the playoffs before. LeBron knows that he has to bring it every night to win a title.

Way back in November, I predicted that Lebron would go to New York when his current contract ends in 2010. Although I don't believe it's a certainty anymore, I still do believe it's going to happen. But Lebron doesn't want to leave his hometown without getting Cleveland a title. He knows this year is his best chance, and he's playing like it. For that reason alone, I don't know if any team or player will be able to stop him this season.

Prediction
Cavs in 5

***

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Backcourt
Chauncey Billups has been the single biggest acquisition of any team this year. He's helped turn a team that never played enough defense, rarely played together and always ended their season with a first round exit, to a team on the brink of the NBA Finals. His effect on this team can't be understated. He was a legitimate MVP candidate based on what he's done for this team. He hasn't slowed down in the playoffs, as he's been - in my opinion - the best point guard on any of the playoff teams thus far. The Nuggets shooting guard, Dahntay Jones, is a good defender and makes those ever-so-important hustle plays. With a team with as much offense as Denver, that's all he really has to give.

Kobe is one of the best players in the NBA to watch. His basketball IQ is so ridiculously high. He was born to score a basketball, and the effortlessness in which he does it is a real sight to see. That being said, for his team to win, he needs to keep his shot attempts down (somewhere around the 19-22 attempts range) and get the rest of his team involved for the Lakers to be as great as they can be. His defense is always stellar and he can simply rip the heart out of an opponent when he wants to.

The other guard spot for the Lakers hasn't been so hot. Derek Fisher has gotten old fast, as he was getting straight owned by Aaron Brooks in the Rockets series. It didn't help that on the offensive end he wasn't doing much better, as he shot just 31% from the field in the Houston series. Backup point guard Jordan Farmer might actually be a better option for the Lakers, but Phil Jackson doesn't want to stray away from a point guard he trusts. Kobe gives the Lakers the edge, but it's alot closer than you think.

ADV - Lakers

Frontcourt
Now here's an interesting matchup, as both teams have great players in the post. The Nuggets have a nice mix of great offense, defense and toughness. Nene, who had been playing better all season, has raised his game even more in the playoffs. His size makes it very dificult to defend him, and also to go against him when he's on defense. Kenyon Martin is a damn pitbull, who has an innate ability to scare the bejesus out of the guy he's covering. He had Nowitzki shook at times during the Dallas series, and he'll definitely be trying to do the same to the Lakers fancy bigs. Then there's Melo, one of the most pure scorers in this league.

Alot's been written and said (and deserverdly so) about Chauncey's effect on this team. What hasn't been covered as much is how 'Melo has sacrificed his scoring, matured, became a better teammate and took on a leadership role to help the Nuggets get to this point. There's no question that Billups has been the catalyst for the Denver's incredible play this year. But Anthony's still the best player on this team. Bron-Bron and DWade have both proven to be bonafide superstars. Anthony was supposed to be at their level, but hasn't been able to accomplish what they have yet. This is his best chance.

The Lakers featured a more talented frontcourt, when they started Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, but coach Phil Jackson has been hell-bent on bringing Andrew Bynum back. Gasol demands a double-team every time down the floor, and he has such an array of offensive moves, that it's dizzying for most defenders. Bynum has never really looked the same since the regular season (although he did have a nice Game 7 last round) and I think he actually hinders the Lakers as they focus on trying to get him involved when they don't have to. Still, you can't teach size, and Bynum has a lot of it. If he can get back to his play earlier in the season, he can be a terror down low. Trevor Ariza has been a nice piece for L.A. this year, as he can cover the other team's best perimeter player, allowing Kobe to not have to do it and saving his energy for the offensive end. Ariza can occasionally knock down the open three as well. If Odom was still starting, I think this would be a lot closer, but I like Denver's bigs against L.A.'s with Lamar on the bench.

ADV - Nuggets

Something tells me this isn't a man that the Lakers' bigs
are too excited about seeing next round

Bench
The Nuggets have probably the best bench in the NBA. Anthony Carter is a very solid backup point guard, capable of scoring and running an offense. J.R. Smith is instant offense and is one of a handful of players that can come off the bench and score 30 points. Then there's "The Birdman" Chris Anderson. He's a crowd-pleaser that does all of the little things the Nuggets need. He doesn't score, but he doesn't have to. He's an awesome rebounder and shot-blocker and for 20 minutes a game, he can bring controlled chaos.

Now that Lamar Odom isn't starting, I guess that strengthens the Lakers bench. But I think Odom's actually more effective as a starter. Same with Jordan Farmer (that is, when he gets burn. It seems like Phil Jackson doesn't have complete confidence in the young point guard's ability). Shannon Brown, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic are all capable of having nice games... or really shitty ones. You never really know. And part of the reason the Lakers haven't been as good as they probably should be, is due to inconsistency from their bench.

ADV - Nuggets

Coaching
George Karl's playoff resume is a little suspect. He is the 12th winningest coach of all-time, but he also has the unfortunate distinction of being the only coach to have a 1-seeded team lose to an 8-seeded team, when his Sonics team managed this feat in 1994. He also coached the U.S National Team that got 6th in the 2002 Fiba World Championship. Oh, and he's also never won a Championship in his 21-year coaching career.

Still, he's helped morph a talented team into a Championship-caliber team, and he deserves credit for that. I'm not totally sold on him, but thus far he's proved me wrong.

The Lakers feature one of the best coaches of all time. The Zen-Master has nine titles. He's also coached some of the best players ever, in Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe. It's hard to question Phil Jackson, but I have been puzzled by some of his moves. Why put Bynum back in the starting rotation when Odom has looked much more effective as a starter? Why not start Farmer, when Fisher is clearly a shell of his former self? They seem like uncharacteristic mistakes by Jackson.

You don't pick against nine titles though. You just don't.

ADV - Lakers

Case for the Nuggets
Other than the Cavs (hell, maybe even including the Cavs), no team is playing better than Denver right now. They have it all: high-octane offense, physical defense, veteran leadership, great bench and experienced (albeit probably overrated) coaching. What also works in their favor is the way the Celtics handled the Lakers in the Finals last year. They did it by outmuscling the Lakers soft bigs, something the Nuggets should have no trouble doing. K-Mart and Nene can take Odom and Gasol out of it and Bynum just hasn't been consistent enough to be much of a threat. I don't know who they have to cover Kobe, but if they can take care of everyone else, it may force Kobe to go for 40 every night. That actually favors the Nuggets.

Chauncey should do well against either of the Lakers point guards, and he will be the calming, reassuring force that Denver needs in a series of this magnitude. And people seem to just ignore the fact that Kobe is going back to Colorado... just sayin.'

Denver can win this series. And the worst part for the Lakers is, they know they can.

Case for the Lakers
The Lakers have the most talent. When Kobe, Odom and Gasol are clicking, they may be the best big-3 in the NBA. They can score in bunches and their length disrupts most teams. They have a proven coach and a deep bench. Even though the bench has been a problem, they really only need to get production from 2 1/2 guys for the team to play well.

Then there's Kobe. Black Mamba knows that he'll soon be hitting the downside of his career. Remember that he's been in the NBA since he was 17. He's 30 now. He's running out of chances to win an NBA title.

Kobe is well aware of his place in history. If he doesn't win a title without Shaq, he'll always be remembered as the Robin to Shaq's Batman. Scottie Pippen was a helluva player, and a top-50 NBA player of all-time in his own right. But he's only remembered for being MJ's No. 2.

Kobe needs to win the title this year. I don't know if he can beat LeBron to get it, but I just can't bet against him at least getting to the Finals.

Prediction
Lakers in 7

***

So after a month of playoffs, I still think it'll be Cavs/Lakers in the Finals. It won't be the cakewalk I thought coming in, but we should still get the LeBron and Kobe battle that NBA fans are hoping for.

And since I can't come up with a clever ending, watch this highlight video of the game's two best players.

Photos Courtesy of Google Images and ESPN.com

(Not) Predicting the Conference Championships

I've got to be honest. Coming into the NFL playoffs, I was feeling pretty confident about my ability to understand this league.

After correctly picking both Miami and Philly to make the playoffs a month ago, I thought I had this season figured out. When the playoffs started, I assumed that I wouldn't have much trouble picking winners and figuring out which teams were contenders and pretenders to win the Super Bowl.

I only went 2-2 in the first round, but my confidence wasn't shaken. I was ready for round 2 and believed in my abilities. I knew what I saw during the season and the first round and was pretty sure that by the end of the Steelers/Chargers game, I'd be looking at 4-0.

Then Saturday afternoon came around. And Chris Johnson went out. And the Titans couldn't hold onto the ball in the redzone. And the officials forgot to throw a flag on a clear delay of game penalty.

Ravens 1, Flavors of Lovelace 0.

Still, that was a close game, between two great teams. The Titans blew a winnable game after losing their best offensive weapon. I wasn't too fazed by that.

Then the Cardinals, Panthers game happened.

Feeling pretty sad Jake? Yeah, that's how I felt
watching you destroy my Panthers Super Bowl pick

It's one thing to pick the wrong winner. It's another to pick a team in a blowout that ultimately loses.

But when you pick a team to blow out their opponent and they end up getting blown out themselves? Well then it's time to re-evaluate the way you predict football games.

I was wrong about the Giants/Eagles game too, but by then, I was too sick over Saturday's game to care. The Steelers are the only team that saved me from going Oh-fer last weekend.

The only solace is that I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs, and they're still very much in the hunt. Then again, I also picked them to beat the Panthers in that game. So yeah.....

Anyway, for this week's predictions, I'm going to change the script a bit. At this point, I don't think anything would surprise us this weekend. Every team has a very realistic opportunity to win it all and I don't think there's any clear favorite anymore.

So instead of making bold proclamations about who I think is going to win, I'm instead going to write an extended preview of the game, followed by arguing for both teams. Because really, after what we've seen thus far, it doesn't matter who you think will win, but rather how you argue it. Just for fun I'll make an actual pick later this week, but for now, lets take a look at every team's case for getting to the Super Bowl.

Which team will be this year's Giants?

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Line - Opened at Philly giving 3, but has since moved to the Iggles giving 3.5.

Super Bowl Odds - You get 2 to 1 odds on the Eagles winning it all, while the Cards are currently at 5 to 1.

Key Matchup for the Cards - Larry Fitzgerald vs. Eagles Secondary

Larry Fitz is an absolute monster right now. When I see Kurt Warner throw the ball up into clear double-teams to him, I always expect Fitz to come down with it. And he always does. He made the Panthers secondary look pathetic, and he was ALL they had to focus on with Anquan Boldin out. The Eagles have a much more established secondary with Asante Samuel (one of the best playoff playmakers ever), Brian Dawkins (playing on a mission right now), Sheldon Brown (a hard-hitting, smart corner) and Quintin Mikell (underrated safety, who led the team with 169 tackles). The Eagles will be throwing double and triple teams at him all day. Fitz will have to continue to prove that he's the best receiver in the league and find holes in the secondary. Eagles D-Coordinator Jim Johnson loves to brings the blitz. For Kurt Warner to have any chance of staying upright, Fitz will have to find openings in the defense and make big plays.

Key Matchup for the Eagles - Brian Westbrook vs. the Cardinals Front Seven

The Cardinals secondary has been playing fantastic this postseason. They have seven interceptions (the most of any playoff team) and effectively made Jake Delhomme look like a high school quarterback (and a JV one at that). During the regular season, the best way to beat the Cards was on the ground, but Arizona bottled up Michael Turner in the first round, while Carolina inexplicably never really tried to run against them. Westbrook hasn't had a great postseason. He has only had one really big play in the playoffs; the long screen pass against the Vikings, but has yet to really get going consistently. To beat the Cards on Sunday, he'll have to be able to run effectively and keep the Cards secondary honest, to allow McNabb to look downfield.

Interesting Subplot, that may be Beaten into the Ground by Gametime - The last time these two teams played was Thanksgiving and the Eagles stomped Arizona 48-20. The two weeks before that, McNabb played terrible in a game against the Cincinnati Bengals that resulted in a tie, and led to his shocking revelation that he didn't know an NFL game could end in a tie. The next week he stunk it up against the Ravens in the first half, and was surprisingly benched in favor of backup and second-year player Kevin Kolb. It's possible that if the Eagles didn't have a short week going into the the Thanksgiving game, they would have stuck with Kolb and started rebuilding for next year (remember they were 5-5-1 and that point). The first game of McNabb's resurgence came against Arizona.

Potential X Factor - The Cards home crowd

I know we just witnessed three home teams go out last week, but Arizona had a outstanding crowd in its first game against Atlanta (which was subsequently their first home playoff game in 61 years). Factor in that the tickets for this game were sold out in six minutes and you can see that Arizona's pretty pumped for this one.

The Cards fans really brought the noise in the first round

Case for the Cards - No one thought the Cards would be here. I mean no one. Not you, not me, not even the Cardinals players. They poured gatorade on coach Ken Whisenhunt after winning their first game against Atlanta. We're giving gatorade showers after winning our first round home playoff games now?

Arizona has relished the underdog role all playoffs. They also have a former Super Bowl MVP in Kurt Warner leading them and a resurgent Edgerrin James (who has playoff experience himself). They have the best receiver in the league, who is borderline unstoppable right now. If the Cardinals can get up quick and get that hungry, home crowd behind them, they can rattle an Eagles team who has a history of melting in a loud, raucous arenas (see: Redskins, Week 16).

Add in an inevitable Andy Reid coaching mistake and 'Zona can do enough to punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.

Case for the Eagles - You could argue that seeing the Eagles here isn't a surprise at all. Many picked Philly to make a Super Bowl run when the season started. But when they were 5-5-1, it looked like the McNabb, and probably the Reid era, were over.

But since that loss, something has happened to this team. Besides the Redskins defeat, the Eagles have been downright dominant since the Ravens loss and seem to be gelling perfectly at the right time. Their defense has been the most impressive, yielding just 12.5 points per game (good for 2nd in the playoffs) and confusing quarterbacks with all their pressure. The Eagles have a similar feel of the 2008 Giants and the 2006 Steelers: Wildcard teams that got hot late in the season and rode that momentum all the way to a Super Bowl win.

If the Eagles triple team Fitz and force the Cards to beat them with their run game and other options, Warner and Co. may not have an answer. Also consider that Warner isn't the most mobile of quarterbacks in the pocket. If the Eagles can bring pressure and bring Warner to the turf early, and put some points on the board themselves, it could force Arizona to press. Plus, Arizona's pretty happy to be here. They could be a little too happy to be here, while the Eagles, McNabb and Reid are hungry to leave a successful legacy in Philadelphia. This year's team is capable of making this Eagles team a team to remember.


Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas Line - Opened at Steelers giving 5 and has already moved to 6. People love themselves some terrible towel.

Super Bowl Odds - Steelers are a non-lucrative 9 to 5, while the Ravens are probably the best value of all the teams left at 4 to 1.

Key Matchup for the Ravens - Joe Flacco vs. Pittsburgh's D

Flacco has been great during the playoffs. He hasn't had to do too much; and hasn't, but he has done enough to win. The first game the Ravens played against Pittsburgh this season, they were in control of the game, but Flacco had a costly third quarter fumble, which was brought back for a touchdown, and completely changed the momentum of the game. In the second meeting, he was awful, and the Steelers came back and won. Even though Flacco's a rookie, he can't play like one on Sunday. The Ravens will want to run the ball, but it's difficult to run against Pittsburgh. He'll have to make some throws, in the hostile environment that is Heinz Field, if the Ravens want to advance to the Super Bowl.

Key Matchup for the Steelers - Willie Parker vs. Raven's Front Seven

Fast Willie looked the healthiest I've seen him since the beginning of the season last week. He was cutting up the Chargers defense at will and was back to his normally speedy self. Conversely, Chris Johnson was dicing up a normally impossible-to-run-on, Ravens defense last week too. He just looked too fast and shifty for the linemen and linebackers and was picking up positive yards in bunches. Parker is similar to Johnson in that he uses speed and quick moves to pick up yardage. No one's expecting Parker to have a huge day, but if he can reel off a couple of solid runs, it may open up the play-action deep pass. You have to keep the Ravens D off balance, or else Ed Reed will just sit back and bait Ben into a mistake.

Fast Willie proved why he got the nickname last week

Interesting Subplot, that may be Beaten into the Ground by Gametime - I don't know if you heard, but these two teams played twice in the regular season. Yeah, they're even in the same division. Hey, it's pretty hard to beat a team three times in the same season, ya know? Oh you've heard that one before? Really???

Jokes aside, this game promises to be a bloodbath. These teams hate each other. Not football hate, but the kind of hate where if they saw each other off the field out at a bar, a brawl could ensue. The Ravens are a prideful (read: arrogant) bunch, that despise the fact that they lost two games to Pittsburgh this year. They think they're the better team. They want to prove that the AFC North doesn't go through Pittsburgh anymore. And they're still pretty pissed about their last game that ended in controversy, when Santonio Holmes's final touchdown catch may or may not have crossed the plane. This game is the reason why we watch football.

Potential X Factor - The Steelers Offensive Line.

They played arguably their best game of the season last week, keeping Roethlisberger upright and only allowing one sack. Ben responded with a great game and Pittsburgh won relatively easy. The Ravens will certainly be bringing a ton of heat to test that O-line this time around. If Roethlisberger's pressured, he tends to make mistakes.

Case for the Ravens - This current team has some similarities to the 2000 Ravens team. Awesome defense, potentially shaky quarterback and Ray Lewis running the show. They've already proven they can win a Super Bowl without a great quarterback; what makes us think they can't do it again?

Baltimore's also a team that no one wants to play right now, and that includes the Steelers. The Ravens want revenge in the worst way, and they'll be out for blood in this game. With their defense, they have a chance in every game, no matter what the score. If they can bottle up Willie early, it'll force Ben to have to throw more than he wants to. Then the Ravens can bring the heat and either sack him, or make him force some throws. You do not want to force throws with Ed Reed patrolling the middle of the field.

This game is going to be close so it's going to come down to just one or two plays that will ultimately decide it. If the Ravens can continue to do what they've been doing all year: run the ball, play terrifying defense and Flacco making one or two big plays down field, they'll win this game.

Case for the Steelers - Credit Pittsburgh for being here after playing an absolutely murderous schedule the entire year. They've been constantly banged up, but their defense, coaching and ability to make just enough plays to win have got them in this position.

Last week the Steelers were something they haven't been most of this season: healthy. And when they're healthy, we see what Pittsburgh is capable of. They controlled the Chargers (including only letting them have one offensive play in the third quarter) and imposed their will on a clearly inferior foe.

The Ravens aren't inferior in any way. Baltimore is as good as the Steelers... almost. It's close, but Pittsburgh is still the better team. Plus, they're playing at Heinz Field, a notoriously difficult stadium to play in. And they have a major trump card in this one; Ben vs. Flacco. This is Roethlisberger's third AFC Championship game. For a 26-year-old, he's pretty seasoned. He knows how to win these games. Flacco will one day be great, but right now he reminds me (and just about everyone else) of a young Roethlisberger. The same young Roethlisberger that ultimately went out in the playoffs after playing a terrible game. If Pittsburgh can block up front, play smart and make Flacco uncomfortable, they should be going for their league-leading, sixth Super Bowl win.

Ultimately, the AFC Championship might come down

to the battle of big, goofy quarterbacks

PICKS COMING THURSDAY

Images courtesy of Sports Illustrated's Al Tieleman and John W. McDonough, Getty Images and Google Images

The Playoffs are (Finally) Here

So as NFL fans, we've finally reached our pinnacle. The playoffs. A new season starts tomorrow and we'll soon have a new Super Bowl winner crowned.

It's been a pretty weird and unexpected season. An 11 win team didn't make the playoffs while a team that won just one game last year, did. Detroit made history in the worst possible way. Brett Favre led a minor resurgence in New York, then reminded us why he decided to step away in the first place.

Brett was who we thought he was, which was a very old man

A Hall of Fame quarterback's career is in jeopardy, a coach dropped his pants, old quarterbacks and rookie running backs took center stage and T.O. mouthed off and became a cancer on what should've been a great team.

Well I guess not everything was so unexpected after all....

But now it's time to look at the NFL playoff picture. I predicted who I thought would make the playoffs three weeks ago and hit some homeruns (hell yeah Miami and Philly!) and looked like a fool with some others (I'm looking at you Tampa Bay) but it's time to look into the future again, starting with this weekend's wildcard games.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

This one features a contrast of recent performance. Atlanta has been one of the hottest second half teams, led behind the Offensive Rookie of the Year, Michael Turner and a first-year head coach. Arizona on the other hand has been going in the wrong direction since they clinched a playoff berth and doesn't look like anything resembling a playoff team. The Cards are 6-2 at home though, and you would think they'd step up for their first playoff game since 1998.

Personally, I think the Cards kinda suck. I'm going with the Falcons to continue their shocking turnaround and Matt Ryan to prove he's legit. I thought Ryan wouldn't be good when he first came into the NFL and he's proved me wrong all season; let's see if the kid can do it in the playoffs.

Matt Ryan's been the opposite of suck this season

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

How hard were the Colts rooting for the Broncos last weekend? Had Denver won that game, Indy would've had a cupcake first round, Mike Shanahan would still have a job and San Diego would've been labeled the most disappointing team of 2008 (with the Jaguars a very close 2nd). Instead, the Colts have to play the one team they always seem to have trouble with and the Chargers get the chance to redeem themselves after a pretty piss-poor performance during the regular season.

But it's pretty hard to bet against Peyton Manning after how the Colts have played in the second half. I'm picking the Colts in a game that goes down to the wire, with Manning finding a way to win it in the last two minutes.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

The last time these two teams played, the Ravens dominated the 'Fins. Since then, though, both these teams have played excellent. I think this one's a lot closer than the first and it'll come down to defense and turnovers.

The Ravens have one of the scariest and opportunistic defenses in the league, while the Dolphins are the best team in turnover differential. I think this is one of the more entertaining games of the playoffs but the Ravens sneak through by forcing Chad Pennington into a costly turnover late in the game that seals it. (And that would mean Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan both advance in the playoffs. I just picked two rookie quarterbacks to advance in the playoffs? Yikes.)

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Let me start by saying that there's no way this should be the final game of wildcard weekend. This one's probably the biggest mismatch on the board. The way the Eagles have been playing, they should win this game easily, but Philly does have the tendency of forgetting to show up in certain games (like the Cincinnati tie, or the god-awful performance against the Redskins in Week 16).

Still, I like the Eagles, and more for their defensive play than anything else. Brian Dawkins is playing like a cagey veteran on a mission, and I really really really don't like Tavaris Jackson in the playoffs. The Vikings surprisingly good home crowd keeps them in the game in the first half, but I think the Birds run away with it in the second and cruise to the next round.

Donovan might not know that there's overtime in the NFL,

but he should know how to beat the Vikings secondary

That's what I see for this weekend. And just for fun, I'll predict all the way to the Super Bowl, without the lengthy explanations.

SECOND ROUND

(1) NY Giants over (6) Philly

(2) Carolina over (5) Atlanta

(1) Tennessee over (6) Baltimore

(2) Pittsburgh over (5) Indianapolis

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

(2) Carolina over (1) NY Giants

(2) Pittsburgh over (1) Tennessee

SUPER BOWL

Pittsburgh 24 Carolina 20

Pictures courtesy of Google Images

Predicting the NFL Playoffs, Part 2

Yesterday I predicted the NFC playoffs. Today, lets take a look at the AFC.

(Side Note: When I predicted the Eagles to make the playoffs yesterday, I assumed they'd get there by continuing to pound the ball with Westbrook. But after reading this, I'm not as confident about their chances. Andy Reid, in his infinite wisdom, explained that the Birds newfound running philosophy in last week's upset win against the Giants was due to the wind and nothing else. If that means that Reid will go back to putting McNabb in a shotgun on every down and throwing the ball 40+ times a game, all bets are off).

I thought the Eagles had a shot at the playoffs,
but the mad scientist Andy Reid may have other ideas

Back to the predictions....

AFC
(1) Tennessee Titans (13-3)
at Houston (L), Pittsburgh (W), at Indianapolis (L)

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
at Baltimore (L), at Tennessee (L), Cleveland (W)

(3) Miami Dolphins (11-5)
San Francisco (W), at Kansas City (W), at NY Jets (W)

(4) Denver Broncos (8-8)
at Carolina (L), Buffalo (L), at San Diego (L)

(5) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Detroit (W), at Jacksonville (W), Tennessee (W)

(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Pittsburgh (W), at Dallas (L), Jacksonville (W)

LEFT OUT
*New England Patriots (11-5)
at Oakland (W), Arizona (W), at Buffalo (W)
*NY Jets (10-6)
Buffalo (W), at Seattle (W), Miami (L)
*San Diego (7-9)
Kansas City (W), at Tampa Bay (L), Denver (W)

EXPLANATION

• Tennessee has been the most impressive team in the NFL thus far, but they're running out of things to play for. They just clinched the division last week, and I think they come out a little uninspired this week, leading to an upset loss to the upstart Texans. They play Pittsburgh next, which could be an AFC championship preview, which I think they win (in what could be one of the best games of the year). They finish with a meaningless loss to the Colts - where they sit most of starters in the second half - and cruise to the No. 1 seed.

• I can't figure out how Pittsburgh has 10 wins right now. Living in Baltimore, and having to watch an inordinate amount of Steelers games (since they're in the same division as the Ravens), I can tell you that there have been about four games this year that Pittsburgh had no business winning (Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego and Dallas come to mind). But their defense is downright terrifying and keeps them in every game they play. That being said, I think they lose to Baltimore in a grudge match for the ages, then lose to the Titans before routing the ship and pummeling a poor, defenseless Browns team in the season-finale. The tiebreakers come into place between the Steelers and Bmore. Both teams will finish with the same division record of 5-1, and will have the same record against common opponents. It'll come down to how each team performed against the AFC, where both have ridiculous records. The Steelers record of 10-2 will barely edge out the Ravens' 9-3 and they'll grab the No. 2.

Troy Polamalu and his flowing locks make the Steelers a contender

• Right now the AFC East is completely up for grabs. I like Miami because of two major reasons: They're well coached (Tony Sparano) and don't turn the ball over. Plus, it's finally time to give Chad Pennington his due and (gulp) put him in the MVP discussion. I'm not saying he should win, or even come in the top 3, but his leadership on a team that won just one game last year needs to at least be acknowledged more. I think San Fran's got a shot to upset the 'Fins this week though. That may sound like a homer pick (I'm a Niners fan), but you have to admit, the last two weeks the Niners seem to have the AFC East's number. But with Frank Gore banged up and maybe not even playing, I think the 'Fins survive, then beat Kansas City on the road, setting up a win-and-get-in between them and the Jets in the season finale. That'll set the stage for Pennington's perfect revenge; beating the team that cut him and denying Favre and New York a spot in the playoffs. Hey, stranger things have happened right?
  

• It's the AFC West, so do we really even care? The Broncos lose their next two games which should set up a season-finale, playoff-qualifying game against the Chargers. Unfortunately, San Diego will blow it by losing at Tampa Bay the week before and effectively eliminate themselves from contention. Denver, with nothing to play for, loses to the Chargers to finish .500, but still nabs the fourth seed. They'll go on to get obliterated by whoever they play in the first round while teams like the Patriots and Jets are forced to watch the embarrassment from home.

• The Colts have been rolling since week 8, although they haven't looked terribly impressive in a lot of those wins. Still, they're defense is solid and they have Peyton Manning, so I think they win their next three and get the fifth seed. It helps that they'll play the Titans in the finale when Tennessee will have nothing to play for.

• I absolutely hate to admit it, but Joe Flacco's pretty good (After covering him in the preseason, I thought he'd be terrible). He has been outstanding - especially for a rookie - during the second half of the season. Add in the fact that Baltimore has the most opportunistic defense in the league (with guys like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis playing like its 2003), they're well coached and find ways to come up with a couple big plays every game, and this may be one of the scariest teams to see in the playoffs. I think they win a great game against Pittsburgh this week, followed by a letdown game and loss against Dallas. They pound Jacksonville in the finale leaving them at 11-5 and tied with the Pats. The tiebreak comes down to conference record, where Bmore's 9-3 beats the Pats 7-5 and they grab the last seed.

You do NOT want to see the Ravens' D in the playoffs

So that's what I think the playoffs look like in a few weeks. We've got some teams that were expected to be in this position when the season started and a lot more that seemingly came out of nowhere.

Then again, I'm the same guy who picked the Cowboys to beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl before the season started, so what the hell do I know?

Shawne, you pretty much could've done the "Lights Out"
dance on the Chargers season once you went out

All images courtesy of Google Images

Predicting the NFL Playoffs

When Tom Brady went down in the Patriot's first game of the season, he wasn't the only one that took a brutal, season-derailing hit. Football fans did too.

Whether you like or loathe the Pats (I consider myself in the latter), you have to admit that you had a vested interest in watching a player like Brady perform and a team like the Patriots dominate. You may root against them, but you're still engaged, and sometimes it's more fun to root against a team than to cheer for one.

When Brady got injured - and to a lesser extent, when the Colts struggled mightily out of the gate - it allowed just about every team to have a shot to make the playoffs, and ultimately make a run at the Super Bowl.

And now with three weeks left in the season, we're seeing just how much parity is really in the NFL. As of today, there's a whopping 20 teams that still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. So we might as well speculate, right? Here's my predictions for the 2008-09 NFL playoffs.

NFC
(1) NY Giants (13-3)
at Dallas (L), Carolina (W), at Minnesota (W)

(2) Tampa Bay Bucs (11-5)
at Atlanta (L), San Diego (W), Oakland (W)

(3) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
Minnesota (W), at New England (L), Seattle (W)

(4) Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
at Arizona (L), Atlanta (W), NY Giants (L)

(5) Carolina Panthers (11-5)
Denver (W), at NY Giants (L), at New Orleans (L)

(6) Philadelphia Eagles (10-5-1)
Cleveland (W), at Washington (W), Dallas (W)

LEFT OUT
* Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
NY Giants (W), Baltimore (W), at Philly (L)
* Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
Tampa Bay (W), at Minnesota (L), St. Louis (W)
* New Orleans Saints (9-7)
at Chicago (L), at Detroit (W), Carolina (W)
* Chicago Bears (8-8)
New Orleans (W), Green Bay (L), at Houston (L)
* Washington Redskins (8-8)
at Cincinnati (W), Philadelphia (L), at San Francisco (L)

EXPLANATION

• I think the G-Men lose next week to Dallas, prompting the media shitstorm of stories claiming "Plax's Legal Woes Destroy Giants Season." After a week of questioning the Giants playoff chances, they soundly beat Carolina in the Meadowlands and finish the season with a win against Minnesota (I think even the Giants scrubs in the second half get it done) to grab the No. 1 seed.
  

Take a bow Plax, you've almost single-handedly
ruined the Giants season

• Tampa Bay will lose to Atlanta next week, because no one can seem to beat an NFC South team at their place, and it'll look like they'll be in trouble to just make the wild card. Luckily, their last two games will be against AFC West teams, who they'll pummel, to get to 11-5. Here's where the NFL tiebreakers come in. I think Carolina goes to 11-5 (explanation below) and since Tampa Bay and Carolina have identical records, the first tiebreak is head-to-head, which is tied 1-1. They're both 3-3 in the division and have the same record against common opponents. It comes down to conference records, where Tampa Bay has a slight edge (8-4 to 7-5) giving them the two-seed and the bye.

• The Cardinals, blessed with playing in a cupcake division, should coast to the No. 3 seed. They'll take care of business at home, beating the Vikings and Seattle in the season-finale, while losing to the Pats on the road to finish 10-6.

• The NFC North is pathetic. I still can't figure out why the Packers have decided they have no desire to take a winnable division that's completely up for grabs, but I digress.... Minnesota will lose to the Cardinals next week on the road, setting up a do-or-die game with the Falcons. I'm not sold on the Falcons on the road and I think that Minny's home field gets them the win... barely. They end with what will amount to a meaningless loss to the G-Men and grab the fourth seed (and get pounded in the first round of the playoffs).

Just remember. If Gus Frerotte can succeed in his line of work, so can you.

• Carolina wins next week, gets to 11-3 and will look primed for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, they'll run into the Giants, who will be coming off of two straight losses to divisional rivals. The Panthers get stomped on the road and then go into New Orleans, who will love the opportunity to spoil a rival's chances at a first-round bye. They lose, and limp into the playoffs as the fifth seed.

• The NFC East is having some serious problems right now. Plax's distraction, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones calling out his toughest player and Redskins coach Jim Zorn and Clinton Portis are having a cute, little catfight. While all of this is going on, Brian Westbrook has quietly gotten healthy and the Eagles are looking like the contender they were expected to be in the beginning of the season. There is actually precedent for the Birds to go on winning streaks to end the regular season, and because of all this, I see Philly winning their next three games and stealing the sixth seed. They have an easy win next week against the Browns and will follow with a W against a 'Skins team that beat them once this year (revenge game). The season-finale between the Cowboys and Eagles will decide who gets the final seed. I think it's close the entire game before a late Romo mistake punches the Eagles' ticket into the playoffs and leads to the end of the Wade Phillips era in Dallas.

Poor Wade

FOR TOMORROW: AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS, WK. 15 PICKS AND UPDATED POWER POLL

All Photos courtesy of Google Images