Predicting the NFL Playoffs, Part 2

Yesterday I predicted the NFC playoffs. Today, lets take a look at the AFC.

(Side Note: When I predicted the Eagles to make the playoffs yesterday, I assumed they'd get there by continuing to pound the ball with Westbrook. But after reading this, I'm not as confident about their chances. Andy Reid, in his infinite wisdom, explained that the Birds newfound running philosophy in last week's upset win against the Giants was due to the wind and nothing else. If that means that Reid will go back to putting McNabb in a shotgun on every down and throwing the ball 40+ times a game, all bets are off).

I thought the Eagles had a shot at the playoffs,
but the mad scientist Andy Reid may have other ideas

Back to the predictions....

AFC
(1) Tennessee Titans (13-3)
at Houston (L), Pittsburgh (W), at Indianapolis (L)

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
at Baltimore (L), at Tennessee (L), Cleveland (W)

(3) Miami Dolphins (11-5)
San Francisco (W), at Kansas City (W), at NY Jets (W)

(4) Denver Broncos (8-8)
at Carolina (L), Buffalo (L), at San Diego (L)

(5) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Detroit (W), at Jacksonville (W), Tennessee (W)

(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Pittsburgh (W), at Dallas (L), Jacksonville (W)

LEFT OUT
*New England Patriots (11-5)
at Oakland (W), Arizona (W), at Buffalo (W)
*NY Jets (10-6)
Buffalo (W), at Seattle (W), Miami (L)
*San Diego (7-9)
Kansas City (W), at Tampa Bay (L), Denver (W)

EXPLANATION

• Tennessee has been the most impressive team in the NFL thus far, but they're running out of things to play for. They just clinched the division last week, and I think they come out a little uninspired this week, leading to an upset loss to the upstart Texans. They play Pittsburgh next, which could be an AFC championship preview, which I think they win (in what could be one of the best games of the year). They finish with a meaningless loss to the Colts - where they sit most of starters in the second half - and cruise to the No. 1 seed.

• I can't figure out how Pittsburgh has 10 wins right now. Living in Baltimore, and having to watch an inordinate amount of Steelers games (since they're in the same division as the Ravens), I can tell you that there have been about four games this year that Pittsburgh had no business winning (Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego and Dallas come to mind). But their defense is downright terrifying and keeps them in every game they play. That being said, I think they lose to Baltimore in a grudge match for the ages, then lose to the Titans before routing the ship and pummeling a poor, defenseless Browns team in the season-finale. The tiebreakers come into place between the Steelers and Bmore. Both teams will finish with the same division record of 5-1, and will have the same record against common opponents. It'll come down to how each team performed against the AFC, where both have ridiculous records. The Steelers record of 10-2 will barely edge out the Ravens' 9-3 and they'll grab the No. 2.

Troy Polamalu and his flowing locks make the Steelers a contender

• Right now the AFC East is completely up for grabs. I like Miami because of two major reasons: They're well coached (Tony Sparano) and don't turn the ball over. Plus, it's finally time to give Chad Pennington his due and (gulp) put him in the MVP discussion. I'm not saying he should win, or even come in the top 3, but his leadership on a team that won just one game last year needs to at least be acknowledged more. I think San Fran's got a shot to upset the 'Fins this week though. That may sound like a homer pick (I'm a Niners fan), but you have to admit, the last two weeks the Niners seem to have the AFC East's number. But with Frank Gore banged up and maybe not even playing, I think the 'Fins survive, then beat Kansas City on the road, setting up a win-and-get-in between them and the Jets in the season finale. That'll set the stage for Pennington's perfect revenge; beating the team that cut him and denying Favre and New York a spot in the playoffs. Hey, stranger things have happened right?
  

• It's the AFC West, so do we really even care? The Broncos lose their next two games which should set up a season-finale, playoff-qualifying game against the Chargers. Unfortunately, San Diego will blow it by losing at Tampa Bay the week before and effectively eliminate themselves from contention. Denver, with nothing to play for, loses to the Chargers to finish .500, but still nabs the fourth seed. They'll go on to get obliterated by whoever they play in the first round while teams like the Patriots and Jets are forced to watch the embarrassment from home.

• The Colts have been rolling since week 8, although they haven't looked terribly impressive in a lot of those wins. Still, they're defense is solid and they have Peyton Manning, so I think they win their next three and get the fifth seed. It helps that they'll play the Titans in the finale when Tennessee will have nothing to play for.

• I absolutely hate to admit it, but Joe Flacco's pretty good (After covering him in the preseason, I thought he'd be terrible). He has been outstanding - especially for a rookie - during the second half of the season. Add in the fact that Baltimore has the most opportunistic defense in the league (with guys like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis playing like its 2003), they're well coached and find ways to come up with a couple big plays every game, and this may be one of the scariest teams to see in the playoffs. I think they win a great game against Pittsburgh this week, followed by a letdown game and loss against Dallas. They pound Jacksonville in the finale leaving them at 11-5 and tied with the Pats. The tiebreak comes down to conference record, where Bmore's 9-3 beats the Pats 7-5 and they grab the last seed.

You do NOT want to see the Ravens' D in the playoffs

So that's what I think the playoffs look like in a few weeks. We've got some teams that were expected to be in this position when the season started and a lot more that seemingly came out of nowhere.

Then again, I'm the same guy who picked the Cowboys to beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl before the season started, so what the hell do I know?

Shawne, you pretty much could've done the "Lights Out"
dance on the Chargers season once you went out

All images courtesy of Google Images