(Not) Predicting the Conference Championships

I've got to be honest. Coming into the NFL playoffs, I was feeling pretty confident about my ability to understand this league.

After correctly picking both Miami and Philly to make the playoffs a month ago, I thought I had this season figured out. When the playoffs started, I assumed that I wouldn't have much trouble picking winners and figuring out which teams were contenders and pretenders to win the Super Bowl.

I only went 2-2 in the first round, but my confidence wasn't shaken. I was ready for round 2 and believed in my abilities. I knew what I saw during the season and the first round and was pretty sure that by the end of the Steelers/Chargers game, I'd be looking at 4-0.

Then Saturday afternoon came around. And Chris Johnson went out. And the Titans couldn't hold onto the ball in the redzone. And the officials forgot to throw a flag on a clear delay of game penalty.

Ravens 1, Flavors of Lovelace 0.

Still, that was a close game, between two great teams. The Titans blew a winnable game after losing their best offensive weapon. I wasn't too fazed by that.

Then the Cardinals, Panthers game happened.

Feeling pretty sad Jake? Yeah, that's how I felt
watching you destroy my Panthers Super Bowl pick

It's one thing to pick the wrong winner. It's another to pick a team in a blowout that ultimately loses.

But when you pick a team to blow out their opponent and they end up getting blown out themselves? Well then it's time to re-evaluate the way you predict football games.

I was wrong about the Giants/Eagles game too, but by then, I was too sick over Saturday's game to care. The Steelers are the only team that saved me from going Oh-fer last weekend.

The only solace is that I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs, and they're still very much in the hunt. Then again, I also picked them to beat the Panthers in that game. So yeah.....

Anyway, for this week's predictions, I'm going to change the script a bit. At this point, I don't think anything would surprise us this weekend. Every team has a very realistic opportunity to win it all and I don't think there's any clear favorite anymore.

So instead of making bold proclamations about who I think is going to win, I'm instead going to write an extended preview of the game, followed by arguing for both teams. Because really, after what we've seen thus far, it doesn't matter who you think will win, but rather how you argue it. Just for fun I'll make an actual pick later this week, but for now, lets take a look at every team's case for getting to the Super Bowl.

Which team will be this year's Giants?

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Line - Opened at Philly giving 3, but has since moved to the Iggles giving 3.5.

Super Bowl Odds - You get 2 to 1 odds on the Eagles winning it all, while the Cards are currently at 5 to 1.

Key Matchup for the Cards - Larry Fitzgerald vs. Eagles Secondary

Larry Fitz is an absolute monster right now. When I see Kurt Warner throw the ball up into clear double-teams to him, I always expect Fitz to come down with it. And he always does. He made the Panthers secondary look pathetic, and he was ALL they had to focus on with Anquan Boldin out. The Eagles have a much more established secondary with Asante Samuel (one of the best playoff playmakers ever), Brian Dawkins (playing on a mission right now), Sheldon Brown (a hard-hitting, smart corner) and Quintin Mikell (underrated safety, who led the team with 169 tackles). The Eagles will be throwing double and triple teams at him all day. Fitz will have to continue to prove that he's the best receiver in the league and find holes in the secondary. Eagles D-Coordinator Jim Johnson loves to brings the blitz. For Kurt Warner to have any chance of staying upright, Fitz will have to find openings in the defense and make big plays.

Key Matchup for the Eagles - Brian Westbrook vs. the Cardinals Front Seven

The Cardinals secondary has been playing fantastic this postseason. They have seven interceptions (the most of any playoff team) and effectively made Jake Delhomme look like a high school quarterback (and a JV one at that). During the regular season, the best way to beat the Cards was on the ground, but Arizona bottled up Michael Turner in the first round, while Carolina inexplicably never really tried to run against them. Westbrook hasn't had a great postseason. He has only had one really big play in the playoffs; the long screen pass against the Vikings, but has yet to really get going consistently. To beat the Cards on Sunday, he'll have to be able to run effectively and keep the Cards secondary honest, to allow McNabb to look downfield.

Interesting Subplot, that may be Beaten into the Ground by Gametime - The last time these two teams played was Thanksgiving and the Eagles stomped Arizona 48-20. The two weeks before that, McNabb played terrible in a game against the Cincinnati Bengals that resulted in a tie, and led to his shocking revelation that he didn't know an NFL game could end in a tie. The next week he stunk it up against the Ravens in the first half, and was surprisingly benched in favor of backup and second-year player Kevin Kolb. It's possible that if the Eagles didn't have a short week going into the the Thanksgiving game, they would have stuck with Kolb and started rebuilding for next year (remember they were 5-5-1 and that point). The first game of McNabb's resurgence came against Arizona.

Potential X Factor - The Cards home crowd

I know we just witnessed three home teams go out last week, but Arizona had a outstanding crowd in its first game against Atlanta (which was subsequently their first home playoff game in 61 years). Factor in that the tickets for this game were sold out in six minutes and you can see that Arizona's pretty pumped for this one.

The Cards fans really brought the noise in the first round

Case for the Cards - No one thought the Cards would be here. I mean no one. Not you, not me, not even the Cardinals players. They poured gatorade on coach Ken Whisenhunt after winning their first game against Atlanta. We're giving gatorade showers after winning our first round home playoff games now?

Arizona has relished the underdog role all playoffs. They also have a former Super Bowl MVP in Kurt Warner leading them and a resurgent Edgerrin James (who has playoff experience himself). They have the best receiver in the league, who is borderline unstoppable right now. If the Cardinals can get up quick and get that hungry, home crowd behind them, they can rattle an Eagles team who has a history of melting in a loud, raucous arenas (see: Redskins, Week 16).

Add in an inevitable Andy Reid coaching mistake and 'Zona can do enough to punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.

Case for the Eagles - You could argue that seeing the Eagles here isn't a surprise at all. Many picked Philly to make a Super Bowl run when the season started. But when they were 5-5-1, it looked like the McNabb, and probably the Reid era, were over.

But since that loss, something has happened to this team. Besides the Redskins defeat, the Eagles have been downright dominant since the Ravens loss and seem to be gelling perfectly at the right time. Their defense has been the most impressive, yielding just 12.5 points per game (good for 2nd in the playoffs) and confusing quarterbacks with all their pressure. The Eagles have a similar feel of the 2008 Giants and the 2006 Steelers: Wildcard teams that got hot late in the season and rode that momentum all the way to a Super Bowl win.

If the Eagles triple team Fitz and force the Cards to beat them with their run game and other options, Warner and Co. may not have an answer. Also consider that Warner isn't the most mobile of quarterbacks in the pocket. If the Eagles can bring pressure and bring Warner to the turf early, and put some points on the board themselves, it could force Arizona to press. Plus, Arizona's pretty happy to be here. They could be a little too happy to be here, while the Eagles, McNabb and Reid are hungry to leave a successful legacy in Philadelphia. This year's team is capable of making this Eagles team a team to remember.


Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas Line - Opened at Steelers giving 5 and has already moved to 6. People love themselves some terrible towel.

Super Bowl Odds - Steelers are a non-lucrative 9 to 5, while the Ravens are probably the best value of all the teams left at 4 to 1.

Key Matchup for the Ravens - Joe Flacco vs. Pittsburgh's D

Flacco has been great during the playoffs. He hasn't had to do too much; and hasn't, but he has done enough to win. The first game the Ravens played against Pittsburgh this season, they were in control of the game, but Flacco had a costly third quarter fumble, which was brought back for a touchdown, and completely changed the momentum of the game. In the second meeting, he was awful, and the Steelers came back and won. Even though Flacco's a rookie, he can't play like one on Sunday. The Ravens will want to run the ball, but it's difficult to run against Pittsburgh. He'll have to make some throws, in the hostile environment that is Heinz Field, if the Ravens want to advance to the Super Bowl.

Key Matchup for the Steelers - Willie Parker vs. Raven's Front Seven

Fast Willie looked the healthiest I've seen him since the beginning of the season last week. He was cutting up the Chargers defense at will and was back to his normally speedy self. Conversely, Chris Johnson was dicing up a normally impossible-to-run-on, Ravens defense last week too. He just looked too fast and shifty for the linemen and linebackers and was picking up positive yards in bunches. Parker is similar to Johnson in that he uses speed and quick moves to pick up yardage. No one's expecting Parker to have a huge day, but if he can reel off a couple of solid runs, it may open up the play-action deep pass. You have to keep the Ravens D off balance, or else Ed Reed will just sit back and bait Ben into a mistake.

Fast Willie proved why he got the nickname last week

Interesting Subplot, that may be Beaten into the Ground by Gametime - I don't know if you heard, but these two teams played twice in the regular season. Yeah, they're even in the same division. Hey, it's pretty hard to beat a team three times in the same season, ya know? Oh you've heard that one before? Really???

Jokes aside, this game promises to be a bloodbath. These teams hate each other. Not football hate, but the kind of hate where if they saw each other off the field out at a bar, a brawl could ensue. The Ravens are a prideful (read: arrogant) bunch, that despise the fact that they lost two games to Pittsburgh this year. They think they're the better team. They want to prove that the AFC North doesn't go through Pittsburgh anymore. And they're still pretty pissed about their last game that ended in controversy, when Santonio Holmes's final touchdown catch may or may not have crossed the plane. This game is the reason why we watch football.

Potential X Factor - The Steelers Offensive Line.

They played arguably their best game of the season last week, keeping Roethlisberger upright and only allowing one sack. Ben responded with a great game and Pittsburgh won relatively easy. The Ravens will certainly be bringing a ton of heat to test that O-line this time around. If Roethlisberger's pressured, he tends to make mistakes.

Case for the Ravens - This current team has some similarities to the 2000 Ravens team. Awesome defense, potentially shaky quarterback and Ray Lewis running the show. They've already proven they can win a Super Bowl without a great quarterback; what makes us think they can't do it again?

Baltimore's also a team that no one wants to play right now, and that includes the Steelers. The Ravens want revenge in the worst way, and they'll be out for blood in this game. With their defense, they have a chance in every game, no matter what the score. If they can bottle up Willie early, it'll force Ben to have to throw more than he wants to. Then the Ravens can bring the heat and either sack him, or make him force some throws. You do not want to force throws with Ed Reed patrolling the middle of the field.

This game is going to be close so it's going to come down to just one or two plays that will ultimately decide it. If the Ravens can continue to do what they've been doing all year: run the ball, play terrifying defense and Flacco making one or two big plays down field, they'll win this game.

Case for the Steelers - Credit Pittsburgh for being here after playing an absolutely murderous schedule the entire year. They've been constantly banged up, but their defense, coaching and ability to make just enough plays to win have got them in this position.

Last week the Steelers were something they haven't been most of this season: healthy. And when they're healthy, we see what Pittsburgh is capable of. They controlled the Chargers (including only letting them have one offensive play in the third quarter) and imposed their will on a clearly inferior foe.

The Ravens aren't inferior in any way. Baltimore is as good as the Steelers... almost. It's close, but Pittsburgh is still the better team. Plus, they're playing at Heinz Field, a notoriously difficult stadium to play in. And they have a major trump card in this one; Ben vs. Flacco. This is Roethlisberger's third AFC Championship game. For a 26-year-old, he's pretty seasoned. He knows how to win these games. Flacco will one day be great, but right now he reminds me (and just about everyone else) of a young Roethlisberger. The same young Roethlisberger that ultimately went out in the playoffs after playing a terrible game. If Pittsburgh can block up front, play smart and make Flacco uncomfortable, they should be going for their league-leading, sixth Super Bowl win.

Ultimately, the AFC Championship might come down

to the battle of big, goofy quarterbacks

PICKS COMING THURSDAY

Images courtesy of Sports Illustrated's Al Tieleman and John W. McDonough, Getty Images and Google Images