The Sweet 16 Power Poll

We watch nearly four months of college basketball. We pick apart the mid-majors, pay attention to conference tournament winners and carefully choose our super, secret sleepers. We pick and prod our brackets when we should be working, thinking we have the tournament all figured out. We submit our brackets confidently, and anxiously await collecting a big score after winning our office pools.

And after four days of basketball, what do we have?

Chalk. God damn chalk.

After the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, all the one seeds are left. All the two seeds are left. All the three seeds are left. Two fours and a five are left. And the highest seed left, twelve-seed Arizona, isn't exactly your small-school Cinderella.

Last year all the No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, but that was supposed to be an aberration, not the norm. But this year proved again that the good teams are the ones advancing, while the major upsets are getting fewer and farther in between.

Is this a good thing? It's tough to say. It's great seeing the best teams compete, but its fun rooting for the underdog to make a run.

But let's focus on the positives. With all the good teams advancing, this weekend's games should be memorable, well-played and exciting.

So let's break out a power poll, separated by tiers, based on how the team's are playing. Keep in mind that this isn't necessarily ranked by how good I think the teams are, or where I think they'll finish, but is more just a ranking of how they're currently playing. (Similar to the NFL Power Poll I did last year). Afterwards, I'll give my predictions for the rest of the tourney.

Without further ado...

***

THANKS FOR PLAYING, BUT YOUR RUN WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY

16) Arizona
I hate the Wildcats. They shouldn't have gotten in, then they band together and win two rounds. Now people are lauding their run, even though they feature two potential NBA first round picks and beat Cleveland State in the second round to get this far. And we're supposed to be impressed?

I think the Wildcats run ends against Louisville next round. But if someone steps on Chase Budinger's face during the game, all bets are off.

15) Gonzaga
The 'Zags were a darkhorse pick to make a deep run before the tournament started, with people (including myself) thinking they could upset North Carolina next round. They have the talent and the horses to do so, but based on what I've seen in their first two games, I'm not seeing it. They get contributions from a variety of places and can really hurt you on the offensive end. Because of that, they actually could pose a tough matchup for the Tarheels (since North Carolina's Achilles Heel all year has been its defense).

But I don't see how Gonzaga deals with Carolina's scorers. The 'Zags almost blew their last game against Western Kentucky, needing a Demetri Goodson layup with a second left (where the Hilltoppers inexplicably decided not to play any defense) to survive. Orlando Valdez-Mendez made the 'Zags D look like a JV squad. That can't happen against North Carolina.

14) Xavier
Xavier limped into the tournament, losing four of their last eight regular season games, but got lucky to get a good draw. They easily thwarted Portland State before getting Wisconsin in the second round. Had they played Florida State in the second round instead, Xavier may not have even gotten this far, but Wisconsin just didn't have enough firepower to pose much of a problem.

Xavier has experience going deep, making two elite eights in the last five years, and are led by upperclassmen in B.J. Raymond, Derrick Brown and C.J. Anderson (although I'm not crazy about the idea of two of your senior leaders having initial first names. You really want to go to war with B.J. and C.J? Yeah, didn't think so).

I don't think Xavier's got the talent to play with the big dogs though and sweet 16's as far as they get.

C.J. making it look easy. It won't be so easy with
Pitt's Dejuan Blair's dense frame patrolling the paint

PROBABLY WON'T WIN IT, BUT CAN DEFINITELY DERAIL ANOTHER TEAM'S TITLE CHANCES

13) Purdue
The Boilermakers were a sleeper in the beginning of the year to make a Final Four run, and now they're in the position to do so. They gelled at the perfect time, including winning the Big Ten Tournament, and their win over Pac-10 regular season champion Washington in the second round was impressive.

Their next game against UConn could prove interesting. The Huskies haven't had a tough game yet and Purdue's a complete team. What sticks out about Purdue is how smart they play. They rarely rush shots, run their offense and always get good looks. That's a rare talent to have in college basketball, and if the Huskies don't bring their A-game, they could be in for a long night.

I think the key might be sophomore center JaJuan Johnson's play. Against Washington, he was great on the offensive end, but was getting absolutely worked on the defensive end against Jon Brockman (Brockman was something like 7-of-7 on field goal attempts in the second half). If he lets UConn's Hasheem Thabeet go off for that type of production, Purdue won't pose much of a threat.

12) Missouri
The Tigers would probably be much higher had they not barely survived against Marquette on Sunday. You can't blow a 16-point lead against a team that hasn't looked the same since Dominic James's injury. And I know James came back against Missouri, but I don't think a 17-minute, zero-point performance made much of a difference.

Mizzou's uptempo style should make for a very exciting game against Memphis. They can turn the game into a track meet, and the Tigers certainly can score with any team in the country. If they can play the way they've played in the first three halves of the tournament, they can advance. If they play like their last half against Marquette, it won't be close.

11) Kansas
I have to (begrudingly) give Bill Self credit. I've made fun of his coaching deficiencies and tendency to bow out of tournaments early, prior to last season's championship run. Since last season's championship though, Self has shown he can coach, and what he did with this year's team - which lost 7 of its top 9 scorers from last year - is nothing short of astounding. Kansas has looked great in its first two games, surviving a 37-point scoring barrage from North Dakota State's Ben Woodside and easily dismantling Dayton. At the same time, those two teams aren't exactly title contenders.

Their next game against Michigan State is a toss-up. Sherron Collins is a beast and Cole Aldrich seems to get better every game. If the Jayhawks can get those guys just a little help, Self may get Kansas to its third elite eight in five years.

10) Duke
How bad did you want to see Texas pull out that victory over the Blue Devils? I was at a bar watching the game and everyone was rooting for Duke to lose. I hate Duke, and there's probably no way I can write about them objectively, but here goes...

Gerald Henderson at times is unstoppable on the basketball court, even though he's a cheap-shotting bitch. The last couple of seasons, Duke has been a team that kills you from the three-point line. Playing against them used to be simple; if they went cold from the arc, you could beat them. But Henderson gives them someone that can get to the rim whenever he wants and force the defense to adjust to him. That leaves these ugly, doofuses open for treys. Add in the fact that the Dukies are incredibly disruptive on the defensive end and that gives them a shot to get to the Final Four.

What hurts them is they've never really solved their inside problems (Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas aren't scaring anybody). Scheyer's played well at point guard, but I think he can make mistakes if pressured. Those weaknesses, in my mind, will ultimately do the Blue Devils in and hurt their chances of advancing much further.

9) Michigan State
Sparty had a bit of a scare from USC last round, but I give them credit for vanquishing a hot Trojans team. What helps Michigan State is that they've been banged up all year and have finally got their team healthy. What hurts them is that although they're talented, I don't know if it's enough to win it all.

Coach Izzo is great and Michigan State has been consistently good all year. But it's hard for me to take a team seriously that nearly lost to Penn State the first time they played, then got beat by the Nittany Lions at home. I've seen first-hand that Sparty can go down. I don't think they can get enough scoring if they get caught in a high-scoring affair (their tournament scoring leaders are Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green, who both are averaging just 11.5 points per game thus far). Sparty might advance another round, but will probably bow out after that.

Sherron Collins and Co. may be able to keep the
Jayhawks dancing in the Tournament

DANGEROUS, BUT PROBABLY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH

8) Villanova
Nova had a pretty embarrassing scare against American in their first game. I mean, they were playing in Philly, their hometown, for God sake. Some small D.C. school should not be forcing you to play your starters well into the last few minutes of the contest.

But the Wildcats bounced back big against UCLA, making the Bruins - who made the Final Four the last three years - look silly. Nova's tested from playing in the Big East, have one of the best coaches in the business in Jay Wright and have great perimeter play. Scottie Reynolds is a gamer and senior forward Dante Cunningham can do work inside. The Wildcats occasionally go in spurts where they struggle to score, but are a complete team and have already beat the top seat in the region. They may be the favorite to win the East bracket.

7) Oklahoma
The Sooners have a chance to win it all for three reasons. 1) Blake Griffin. 2) Team Spirit. 3) Blake Griffin.

Griffin's looked like a man among boys in the first two rounds and is no question the best NBA prospect in college basketball right now. The Sooners can go as far as Griffin takes them.

The problem is Oklahoma's supporting cast. Willie Warren's legit, but no one else on Oklahoma scares me. If you throw double and triple teams at Griffin and watch Warren, I think you can beat Oklahoma. Michigan gave them a scare, and I think Syracuse's suffocating 2-3 zone could blanket Griffin enough to make him, at the very least, human. I also think you can get physical with Griffin a bit to get him a little off his game. If the Orange bang on him early, I think they'll disrupt the Sooners offense enough to advance.

But if Griffin explodes for a 30 and 15 next game, pretend you didn't read this.

6) Pittsburgh
What a difference a weekend makes. Before the tournament started, Pitt was a trendy pick to win the whole thing. After two too-close-for-comfort games against inferior opponents, most don't think the Panthers survive this weekend.

If Pitt plays the way they did in the first two rounds, they won't. Blair always bring his A-game, but Pitt isn't particularly big down-low (Tyrell Biggs is their tallest contributor at 6'8"). Sam Young needs to continue to play great and Pitt's key will be the play of Levance Fields. He's smart, has great vision and can knock down outside shots, but he's susceptible to getting beat by quicker point guards. I still think Pitt's got a puncher's chance for the title, but there are too many variables against them. Not to mention that if an opposing team's big man can get Blair in foul trouble (see 'Nova's Dante Cunningham) then there's no way Pitt even has a chance of winning (they're 0-4 when Blair fouls out of the game).

In the Jamie Dixon era, the Panthers have never been further than the Sweet 16. I think they get a round further this time around, but the Panthers run may end there.

5) Syracuse
The 'Cuse looked great in the Big East tournament and went from "sleeper" to "team everyone says is a sleeper, making them now a favorite." The Orange have delivered in their first two games though, and look to be the real deal.

I love Johnny Flynn's game, and having a great point guard is one of the greatest attributes you can have in the NCAA tournament. The Syracuse's 2-3 zone is frustrating for most offenses to prepare for and Eric Devendorf, when not slugging coeds, provides great outside shooting. Their bigs are playing better and they've got one of the best coaches in the tournament in Jim Boeheim. No one wants to play the 'Cuse right now.

The last time Syracuse was a No. 3, they won the whole thing. I don't think they'll get that far this year, but they've got a great shot at the Final Four.

One of the most important things an NCAA tournament team can
have is a great point guard. Johnny Flynn certainly fits the bill.

LEGIT CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS

4) Memphis
Memphis provided our first top-team scare of the tournament, and it took them a solid 35 minutes to realize they were supposed to win. It was a cause for concern, but their thrashing of Maryland shows exactly what this team is capable of.

The Tigers have athletes at every position on the floor. They can lock up on D (allowing just a 37% opponent field goal percentage per game during the regular season). John Calipari is a proven coach, who may have made the best (and most obvious?) coaching move of the year, when he moved freshmen phenom Tyreke Evans to the point. The Tigers are hungry, after losing the championship last year, and Calipari has been using the "No One Respects Us" rallying cry all year.

They'll have their hands full against Missouri and the winner of UConn/Purdue will be a tough game as well. But this team has confidence. Winning 27 straight D-1 games will do that.

Everyone points to the fact that Memphis plays in a weak conference. But every year they go deep in the tournament. The Tigers are built for March and April and this particular team is plenty dangerous. If things fall right, they can win the title.

3) Louisville
Louisville would probably be higher, if Siena hadn't given them such a scare last round. Still, the Cardinals have talent. Forward Earl Clark is a very nice player and, when focused, Terrence Williams is capable of taking over games with his versatility. Louisville's been arguably the most consistent of the big-conference teams all year, and as the No 1 seed, face the easiest road to the Final Four. Once they get there, anything's possible.

Louisville also can lock up on D (sensing a theme here?) and have one of the best coaches in the business in Rick Pitino (who rocks some of the best suits in college basketball). My concern with Louisville is I still don't know how they tussle with the best of teams. They won the Big East regular season and conference crowns, but those accomplishments are deceiving. Both Pitt and UConn lost early in the tournament, so the Cardinals didn't have to play either team. Louisville only played each of those teams once during the regular season, beating Pitt by six, and getting routed by UConn by 17. This is also the same team that got embarrased by Notre Dame - whose playing in the NIT right now - by 33 points (though, to be fair, Louisville has won 12 straight since that defeat).

I think the Cardinals have a great chance to win the whole thing. But that doesn't mean I'm totally confident in them. I feel like Louisville is a great team, but not an elite team. Is that enough to win the title? Yes.

Will it win the title this year? The jury's still out.

2) North Carolina
The Tarheels have the most talent of any of the teams in the tournament. LSU gave North Carolina all they could handle in the second round, but when you have as many options as UNC, a close game can turn into a double digit lead in a hurry.

You already know who the X-factor is for North Carolina. Ty Lawson was incredible in the LSU game. All we've heard about is his toe, but in the regular season finale against Duke and his last game against the Tigers, he was the best player on the court. In the second half, did he look anything less than 100% to you?

Wayne Ellington has also really raised his game, averaging 24 points per in the tournament and doing everything you want from your shooting guard (draining threes, driving the lane and making smart decisions). Hansborough is Hansborough and Roy Williams has proven he can win a championship with talented players (winning in 2004-05).

What will ultimately decide if Carolina can go all the way is if they commit to the defensive end. What was surprising about their second round game wasn't that LSU was staying close; but why they were. They were getting open and uncontested shots. North Carolina tends to go through long stretches where all they want to do is score, score, score. The best example of this is Danny Green. Last year he came off the bench and provided energy, scoring punch and rock-solid, perimeter defense. Now? I can't tell you how many times I see him play lazy on defense, then jack up a bad three-point shot in transition on the other end.

If Lawson's healthy and UNC plays some defense, they'll win the whole thing. If they don't, they'll lose. They won't be able to win it all on talent alone. Final Fours are nice, but for a team that brought back basically the entire Final Four team from last year, anything less than a championship has to be considered a disappointment.

1) UConn
The Huskies have unquestionably looked like the best team in the tournament so far. They've run their first two opponents out of the gym, and are again looking like the team that was plugged as the favorite to win it all back in December and January.

I'm still worried about Jerome Dyson being out for the rest of the season though. It ain't easy replacing a junior guard who plays great perimeter defense. But thus far, UConn has't appeared to lose a step.

A big reason has been the play of A.J. Price. He's been lights-out in the first two games and is straight torching teams who dare give him a little bit of space. His shooting has been dead on and he can get to the basket at will. Add in the fact that he's completely made people forget about that whole stealing laptops thing a couple years ago, and I'd say A.J. is having himself quite a year.

I think UConn's biggest concern is the fact that they haven't played a close game yet. Blowouts are great, but every other team has been able to respond to a little adversity, against teams that they know they should beat. What happens when the Huskies face that adversity against a team they can lose to? I think Purdue will give UConn a game, and if they advance past them, the winner of Missouri/Memphis could really give UConn trouble.

The recent recruiting scandal news comes at the worst possible time, and can only add as a distraction. And it can't be comforting that Hasheem Thabeet was almost a non-factor last game. I know they blew out Texas A&M, but when your 7' 3" center shoots two shots and picks up four fouls in just 20 minutes, you can't be happy.

UConn is clearly the best team playing right now. But like every other team in the tournament, they're flawed. If they can stay hot, their a championship team, no question. But it'll be interesting to see what happens when they get in a close game that's going back-and-forth in the last two minutes. How will they respond?

A.J. Price is great, but UConn's only going as far
as Thabeet can take them

Alright, enough information and speculation; let's get to the picks.

SWEET 16
(1) Louisville over (12) Arizona
(2) Michigan State over (3) Kansas
(1) UConn over (5) Purdue
(2) Memphis over (3) Missouri
(1) Pitt over (4) Xavier
(3) Villanova over (2) Duke
(1) UNC over (4) Gonzaga
(3) Syracuse over (2) Oklahoma

ELITE 8
(1) Louisville over (2) Michigan State
(2) Memphis over (1) UConn
(3) Villanova over (1) Pitt
(1) North Carolina over (3) Syracuse

FINAL FOUR
(1) Louisville over (2) Memphis
(1) North Carolina over (3) Villanova

CHAMPIONSHIP
North Carolina 76, Louisville 67



Photos Courtesy of Sports Illustrated's Kohjiro Kinno, David E. Klutho, John Biever, Bill Frakes

I Love March Madness

There's a lot to love about March. The seasons change, with Spring bringing warm weather throughout the country. Various cities celebrate St. Patrick's Day with a parade.

But easily the best thing about the month is March Madness.

Aside from the 'Cuse jersey, this girl has nothing to do
with college basketball. But do you really care?

In December, I had alot of problems with college football and dedicated an entire blogpost to it. College basketball, and specifically March Madness, is much different. I love just about everything about it.

So lets dissect just exactly what makes March Madness so great.

***

It Brings Out the Degenerate Gambler in us All
As a diehard basketball fan, I'd love watching the game no matter what. But what draws the casual fan to college basketball isn't the memorable shots, passionate players or frenetic gameplay.

It's participating in brackets.

And lots of brackets. Typically I try to get into three or four and I'm sure there are many others out there that participate in even more. The Office Pool has become an annual tradition. There's nothing better than diligently spending hours filling out various brackets in hopes of winning and cashing in on a big score. It's mostly luck, but when one of our upsets pan out, we're the first ones to brag about it. We agonize over which darkhorse will go deep in the tournament and whine when our Final Four team gets knocked out in the second round. There's no other sport that causes so much exciting discussion between casual acquaintances. Which brings us to another great thing about March Madness...


Yeah Boss, I'll get to that Project in a Second. Let me Just Check How Morehead State's Doing....
March Madness creates an utter lack of productivity in offices nationwide. When we're not scrolling ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sportsline and every other basketball site for sleepers and upset picks, we're discussing with co-workers which team we think can make a run. We fill out brackets and edit them when we're supposed to be working. While the games are going on, we're constantly checking scores, getting updates and occasionally streaming live games. If your office is lucky (or stupid) enough to show games on the office TV, overall work goes down even more.

When national publications go so far as to write articles about the lack of production, you can tell that March Madness has quite the negative effect in the workplace.


So What You Sucked During the Season? You Still Got a Shot.

Unlike college football, where once you lose a game you're usually officially out of the National Championship race, in college basketball, every team gets a shot at redemption via the end-of-year conference tournament. This gives every team a chance to make the Dance, regardless of how they played all year. Just look at Georgia last year. The "Dream Dawgs" won just 13 games last season, but went on a miracle run in the SEC tournament, won the tournament title and earned an invite to the NCAA tournament. This proves that no matter how poor your team did during the regular season, they're not dead until they lose in the conference tourney.

Conference tournaments have also provided some of the all-time great college basketball moments. I can still remember Syracuse's memorable run through the Big East Tournament in 2006. Gerry McNamara lit Madison Square Garden on fire and cemented his legacy, by making winner after game-winner and dragging an underachieving 'Cuse team to the Dance....

(McNamara's highlights are at the 1:33 mark)

How 'bout Them Nittany Lions?
If you're not a Penn State fan, I advise you to just skip this one and move on. You're not going to like it. You'll think I'm a homer (I am), and question my journalistic integrity for writing about a team with no basketball history, that hasn't made the tournament since 2001 and has only made the Dance three times since 1965. I implore you non-Penn State fan... don't read this.

OK, now that that's out of the way... have you seen Penn State basketball this year? In case you haven't, let me summarize. The team has won 21 games and 10 in the Big Ten. They hold wins over the top three teams in the league - Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue. They beat the Spartans on the road and swept Illinois this year.

Unfortunately, their out of conference schedule is downright embarrasing. It's being predicted that the Lions will need one or two wins in the Big Ten tournament to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Truth be told, I've been a North Carolina fan since I was a kid, but I've loosely cared about the Nittany Lion basketball program since I enrolled to Happy Valley. My freshman year I went to the first game of the season. We were playing Georgetown and I had near-courtside seats (they were extremely easy to get good seats back then). We were up a point with 2.1 seconds to go and it looked like we would pull off an unbelievable upset. The Hoyas inbounded the ball and one of the Penn State players tried to intercept it. He ended up fouling a Georgetown player, who went to the line, sank two free throws and gave the Hoyas a one-point win. Needless to say, I never went to a Penn State game again.

Let's just say it's nice to finally be able to root for Penn State in basketball.

This is Talor Battle. Sophomore point guard, First-team All Big Ten Selection
and responsible for making Penn State basketball semi-relevant this year

Selection Sunday
With all the excitement that comes from following conference tournaments, bubble teams and top teams jockeying for tournament seeds, Selection Sunday is the culmination of it all. For true hoop heads (and those that want to get an early jump on their brackets), this night is when we get first looks at the bracket and immediately start picking potential upset teams and argue over which bracket is the hardest and easiest. Is it sad that I look forward to watching a bunch of old guys reveal which teams go on each bracket line?

Nah, didn't think so.


The Concept of Basketball All Day is Quite Appealing to me
One of the best things about March Madness is that the games leading up to the Final Four are played all day. The first two rounds feature games from Thursday-Sunday, with tons of action to keep fans of every team interested. On Thursday and Friday, most fans will have to work, but that doesn't mean they won't be glued to their computer screens checking for updates (unless you were cagey enough to get off that day. It's a tough sell these days with bosses wising up, but I encourage you to still try).

What's great are the Saturday and Sunday games. Sounds like another excuse to get hammered to me! Camp out at a bar and drown your sorrows after the No. 12 seed you had making a run to the Elite Eight gets hammered by 20 in the first round. And you can take solace in the fact that if the game you're watching doesn't go how you hoped, there are about four more coming on in a half-hour. Anything that allows you to binge drink for hours while watching athletic competition is a winner in my book.

This man was very pleased with Western Kentucky's
run to the Sweet Sixteen last year

Cindarella Slippers. That is if Cindarella Had a Size 16 Shoe.
Everyone loves an underdog, and March Madness is infamous for producing some of the best Cinderella stories every year. We see double-digit seeds upset powerhouses, tiny schools in the middle of nowhere making runs to the Elite Eight and players that most people haven't heard of it become national celebrities.

One of the best examples of this was George Mason's run in 2006. Coming into the tournament as an 11-seed, the Patriots used an experienced team made up of mostly hometown kids to topple heavyweights like my Tarheels and tournament-favorite UConn, making it all the way to the Final Four.

Another, more historic example is the 1985 Villanova team. Ranked eighth, the Wildcats made it all the way to the Championship, and toppled the heavily-favored, Patrick Ewing-led and reigning champion Georgetown Hoyas for one of the greatest tournament performances ever.

And who could forget last year's Davidson team, featuring Stephen Curry? Davidson probably won't make the tournament this year (and they shouldn't), but last year the 10th-seeded Wildcats made a run to the Elite Eight before falling by a basket to eventual-champion Kansas. During the tournament, Stephen Curry was electric. He made big shots look effortless, endeared himself to the nation and made the name Stephen (also spelled Stefen) the most popular name for newborn baby boys in the year 2009 (alright, I have no proof of that last fact. But in 15 years, when you see every boy athlete named Stefen, remember I gave you the heads up).

Which team and player will take the nation by storm this year? It's hard to say, but you can bet that it'll be fun trying to figure it out.

And since we probably won't see Curry in this year's tournament, let's finish this with a look at some of his greatest highlights....